Oscars, 2022 edition. Who is going to win? Who SHOULD win? Your definitive guide, right here!!

So, yeah, I saw them all. OK not quite ALL….but almost. I heard all five “Original Song” nominees, and saw all the nominated movies except for:

No Time To Die (Best Visual Effects)
Cyrano (Best Costume Design)
Boxballet (Best Animated Short Film)

Yes, that’s all. And other than perhaps Boxballet (the Animated Shorts were pretty weak this year), these films have a 0.00000 percent chance to win in their respective categories, so no big loss.

Here we go!

Best Picture

BELFAST
Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas, Producers

CODA
Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger, Producers

DON’T LOOK UP
Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, Producers

DRIVE MY CAR
Teruhisa Yamamoto, Producer

DUNE
Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter, Producers

KING RICHARD
Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith, Producers

LICORICE PIZZA
Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers

NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper, Producers

THE POWER OF THE DOG
Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier, Producers

WEST SIDE STORY
Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers

WILL WIN: All the pundits have this as a battle between The Power of the Dog and CODA. All the pundits are wrong. For the third year in a row, I’m calling for a massive upset. The best film of the year was Drive My Car, and it’s going to win. I was wrong with Minari last year, but I was the only person on the planet as far as I know that called Parasite to win in 2020.

SHOULD WIN: Drive My Car


Actor in a Leading Role

Javier Bardem in BEING THE RICARDOS

Benedict Cumberbatch in THE POWER OF THE DOG

Andrew Garfield in TICK, TICK…BOOM!

Will Smith in KING RICHARD

Denzel Washington in THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

WILL WIN: The pundits aren’t wrong this time, it would be a major upset if anyone other than Will Smith takes home gold.

SHOULD WIN: Smith.


Actor in a Supporting Role

Ciarán Hinds in BELFAST

Troy Kotsur in CODA

Jesse Plemons in THE POWER OF THE DOG

J.K. Simmons in BEING THE RICARDOS

Kodi Smit-McPhee in THE POWER OF THE DOG

WILL WIN: Kotsur has won everything up until now, and he’s a near-lock for this one as well.

SHOULD WIN: Kotsur gave a great performance and is deserving, but if I had the only vote, it’s for J.K. Simmons who absolutely owned every scene he was in.


Actress in a Leading Role

Jessica Chastain in THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE

Olivia Colman in THE LOST DAUGHTER

Penélope Cruz in PARALLEL MOTHERS

Nicole Kidman in BEING THE RICARDOS

Kristen Stewart in SPENCER

WILL WIN: Chastain has had all the late momentum and was transformative as Tammy Faye Bakker. She even had me feeling sympathetic for her.

SHOULD WIN: Cruz.


Actress in a Supporting Role

Jessie Buckley in THE LOST DAUGHTER

Ariana DeBose in WEST SIDE STORY

Judi Dench in BELFAST

Kirsten Dunst in THE POWER OF THE DOG

Aunjanue Ellis in KING RICHARD

WILL WIN: DeBose is a shoo-in for an Oscar for the same role which Rita Moreno won for 50 years ago.

SHOULD WIN: I love Ariana DeBose and this was a career making performance for her, but she’s really not onscreen that much and the movie was a dog, so I’m picking Jesse Buckley who was superb in another film that I didn’t love. Dunst is the dark-horse here.


Animated Feature Film

ENCANTO
Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer

FLEE
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie

LUCA
Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren

THE MITCHELLS VS. THE MACHINES
Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht

RAYA AND THE LAST DRAGON
Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer and Peter Del Vecho

WILL WIN: Will the three Disney movies cancel themselves out? Perhaps, but I can’t see ENCANTO being overlooked since it has seemingly become a cultural phenomenon.

SHOULD WIN: FLEE. I don’t think it has a chance in this category simply because we generally expect animated movies to be FUN, and it’s certainly not that. It was, however, the best of these 5 worthy contenders.


Cinematography

DUNE
Greig Fraser

NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Dan Laustsen

THE POWER OF THE DOG
Ari Wegner

THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
Bruno Delbonnel

WEST SIDE STORY
Janusz Kaminski

WILL WIN: The Academy loves the sweeping Westerns, and THE POWER OF THE DOG fits that bill.

SHOULD WIN: WOOF.


Costume Design

CRUELLA
Jenny Beavan

CYRANO
Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran

DUNE
Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan

NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Luis Sequeira

WEST SIDE STORY
Paul Tazewell

WILL WIN: CRUELLA was well done and costumes were the main theme of the movie, so that makes sense.

SHOULD WIN: CRUELLA


Directing

BELFAST
Kenneth Branagh

DRIVE MY CAR
Ryusuke Hamaguchi

LICORICE PIZZA
Paul Thomas Anderson

THE POWER OF THE DOG
Jane Campion

WEST SIDE STORY
Steven Spielberg

WILL WIN: Campion is the odds-on favorite and I think she becomes just the second female director to take home Oscar.

SHOULD WIN: Hamaguchi managed to make a 3-hour long, Japanese-speaking film that takes place mostly in a car and features a bunch of actors rehearsing for a stage play and make it the most riveting, entertaining film of the year. It was so well-done that I really wanted TO SEE THE PLAY!!! If that’s not Directing, I don’t know what is.


Documentary (Feature)

ASCENSION
Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell

ATTICA
Stanley Nelson and Traci A. Curry

FLEE
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie

SUMMER OF SOUL (…OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED)
Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein

WRITING WITH FIRE
Rintu Thomas and Sushmit Ghosh

WILL WIN: The beloved SUMMER OF SOUL is brilliant and important and the Academy can’t possibly overlook that. What a truly fantastic year of Documentaries. These are five terrific films.

SHOULD WIN: I loved Flee, which came in at #5 on my list of the 10 best movies of 2021, which is remarkable for a Documentary. However, SUMMER OF SOUL came in at #4.


Documentary (Short Subject)

AUDIBLE
Matt Ogens and Geoff McLean

LEAD ME HOME
Pedro Kos and Jon Shenk

THE QUEEN OF BASKETBALL
Ben Proudfoot

THREE SONGS FOR BENAZIR
Elizabeth Mirzaei and Gulistan Mirzaei

WHEN WE WERE BULLIES
Jay Rosenblatt

WILL WIN: THE QUEEN OF BASKETBALL, a fascinating story of the only female ever to be drafted in the NBA. She will be front of mind as well, as she passed away in January of 2022.

SHOULD WIN: The Queen is worthy, but my favorite of these five was WHEN WE WERE BULLIES, a story about guilt, regret, and some truly incredible coincidences that bring a writer to revisit his elementary school days.


Film Editing

DON’T LOOK UP
Hank Corwin

DUNE
Joe Walker

KING RICHARD
Pamela Martin

THE POWER OF THE DOG
Peter Sciberras

TICK, TICK…BOOM!
Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum

WILL WIN: DUNE

SHOULD WIN: DUNE


International Feature Film

DRIVE MY CAR
Japan

FLEE
Denmark

THE HAND OF GOD
Italy

LUNANA: A YAK IN THE CLASSROOM
Bhutan

THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD
Norway

WILL WIN: What a category….but you don’t get nominated for Best Picture and lose here. DRIVE MY CAR

SHOULD WIN: Pretty obvious since it was my best film of the year. But Flee deserves props as well as the only film in history nominated here as well as Best Documentary and Best Animated Film. That is quite a triumph. And The Worst Person in the World also made my Top-10. As I said, what a category!!


Makeup and Hairstyling

COMING 2 AMERICA
Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer

CRUELLA
Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon

DUNE
Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr

THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE
Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh

HOUSE OF GUCCI
Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras

WILL WIN: I changed my pick at the last minute to go with THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE. Originally I said Dune.

SHOULD WIN: DUNE. And I have to mention that I actually sat through about a half hour of Coming 2 America just so I could bring you this well-informed take. That is a half hour of my life that I can never, ever, ever, get back. You’re welcome.


Music (Original Score)

DON’T LOOK UP
Nicholas Britell

DUNE
Hans Zimmer

ENCANTO
Germaine Franco

PARALLEL MOTHERS
Alberto Iglesias

THE POWER OF THE DOG
Jonny Greenwood

WILL WIN: DUNE is an Oscar-score-dream.

SHOULD WIN: PARALLEL MOTHERS


Music (Original Song)

“Be Alive” from KING RICHARD
Music and Lyric by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter

“Dos Oruguitas” from ENCANTO
Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda

“Down To Joy” from BELFAST
Music and Lyric by Van Morrison

“No Time To Die” from NO TIME TO DIE
Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell

“Somehow You Do” from FOUR GOOD DAYS
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren

WILL WIN: SOMEHOW YOU DO, from FOUR GOOD DAYS. Diane Warren is OH-FOR-THIRTEEN in this category. She’s the Susan Lucci of Oscar music. That ends here. Not to mention, it’s a good song performed by Reba McEntire.

SHOULD WIN: Oh, poor Lin-Manuel, who would have finished his EGOT if they had submitted “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” for nomination instead of “Dos Oruguitas”. I am sticking with Warren, as the other contenders (especially the sleepy Bond song) aren’t particularly strong.


Production Design

DUNE
Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos

NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau

THE POWER OF THE DOG
Production Design: Grant Major; Set Decoration: Amber Richards

THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
Production Design: Stefan Dechant; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh

WEST SIDE STORY
Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo

WILL WIN: DUNE

SHOULD WIN: NIGHTMARE ALLEY

Short Film (Animated)

AFFAIRS OF THE ART
Joanna Quinn and Les Mills

BESTIA
Hugo Covarrubias and Tevo Díaz

BOXBALLET
Anton Dyakov

ROBIN ROBIN
Dan Ojari and Mikey Please

THE WINDSHIELD WIPER
Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez

WILL WIN: In a weak category, AFFAIRS OF THE ART

SHOULD WIN: ART, I guess. None of the four I saw really spoke to me. Couldn’t find Boxballet anywhere online, but the short trailer didn’t impress.


Short Film (Live Action)

ALA KACHUU – TAKE AND RUN
Maria Brendle and Nadine Lüchinger

THE DRESS
Tadeusz Łysiak and Maciej Ślesicki

THE LONG GOODBYE
Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed

ON MY MIND
Martin Strange-Hansen and Kim Magnusson

PLEASE HOLD
K.D. Dávila and Levin Menekse

WILL WIN: THE LONG GOODBYE is a powerful look at racism and is produced by and starring Riz Ahmed, who was nominated for Best Actor last year for The Sound of Silence. That kind of star power doesn’t generally show up in Short Films.

SHOULD WIN: Goodbye is really good, but my favorite is the shocking ALA KACHUU, a story about women being kidnapped into marriage in Kyrgyzstan and the total and utter lack of accountability for the kidnappers. This happens right out in the open, and is apparently a huge problem there. Eye-opening and brilliant.


Sound

BELFAST
Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri

DUNE
Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett

NO TIME TO DIE
Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor

THE POWER OF THE DOG
Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb

WEST SIDE STORY
Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy

WILL WIN: DUNE

SHOULD WIN: DUNE


Visual Effects

DUNE
Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer

FREE GUY
Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick

NO TIME TO DIE
Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould

SHANG-CHI AND THE LEGEND OF THE TEN RINGS
Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver

SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME
Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick

WILL WIN: I’m going against conventional wisdom here, and maybe it’s just my Superhero bias at work, but the effects in SPIDER-MAN were some of the best I’ve ever seen. This blockbuster has to get SOMETHING, right? Well, past ceremonies have said “no”, but I think it wins here.

SHOULD WIN: Your favorite neighborhood wall-crawler.


Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

CODA
Screenplay by Siân Heder

DRIVE MY CAR
Screenplay by Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe

DUNE
Screenplay by Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth

THE LOST DAUGHTER
Written by Maggie Gyllenhaal

THE POWER OF THE DOG
Written by Jane Campion

WILL WIN: How does the best film of the year not win for Writing? DRIVE MY CAR

SHOULD WIN: DRIVE MY CAR


Writing (Original Screenplay)

BELFAST
Written by Kenneth Branagh

DON’T LOOK UP
Screenplay by Adam McKay; Story by Adam McKay & David Sirota

KING RICHARD
Written by Zach Baylin

LICORICE PIZZA
Written by Paul Thomas Anderson

THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD
Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier

WILL WIN: My #2 film of the year, and it breaks my heart to say this is the only award it has a chance to get. BELFAST.

SHOULD WIN: BELFAST.


Well, that’s it, let’s see how well I read the Academy. I think they did a pretty good job with nominations this year, with one notable exception: How the HELL did they nominate Kristen Stewart’s boring, often-unintelligible performance in Spencer, a really bad movie, over Lady Gaga’s perfect portrayal of Patrizia Gucci in House of Gucci? Gaga probably should have WON the award this year, and yet she wasn’t even nominated. I know the movie had it’s detractors, and it was far from a perfect film, but that was the female performance of the year, IMO.

Happy Oscars Day!

Published by

deanengemoen

Wine blogger, foodie, traveler.

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