It’s the biggest night of the year for movie buffs like us, and we are extra excited this year because WE FINALLY DID IT! We saw them all! Every movie, every short, every documentary…..all of them.
Well OK, except for one (Vina Verde) but it’s only nominated for Best Song so we just listened to the song. Close enough.
Who will win tonight? Who SHOULD win? Find out below!
BEST PICTURE:
– Bugonia
– F1
– Frankenstein
– Hamnet
– Marty Supreme
– One Battle After Another WILL WIN
– The Secret Agent
– Sentimental Value SHOULD WIN
– Sinners
– Train Dreams
Sentimental Value came in at #1 on my list of 2025’s best films, in a virtual tie with Hamnet which has a small chance here; but likely if it’s not OBAA, it will be Sinners.
BEST DIRECTOR
– Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
– Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
– Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another WILL WIN; SHOULD WIN
– Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
– Ryan Coogler, Sinners
PTA is the clear frontrunner. If Coogler wins, it’s already been a huge night for Sinners and they’ll likely win Best Picture too.
BEST ACTOR:
– Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
– Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme WILL WIN
– Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
– Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
– Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent SHOULD WIN
Moura won the Golden Globe in this category and his movie goes nowhere without his brilliance; but it would be quite an upset if he wins here. This is a tough one, but I’m not expecting a clean “Sinners-sweep” so I’ll stick with the guy that’s been the frontrunner all season.
BEST ACTRESS:
– Jessie Buckley, Hamnet LOCK OF THE NIGHT; SHOULD WIN
– Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You
– Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
– Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
– Emma Stone, Bugonia
In ANY OTHER YEAR, Renate Reinsve would be a huge favorite, but she picked the wrong year to be up for this award. Buckley gave one of my favorite performances of the last quarter century. The only way she doesn’t win this award is if someone grabs the wrong envelope.
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
– Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
– Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
– Delroy Lindo, Sinners
– Sean Penn, One Battle After Another WILL WIN
– Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value SHOULD WIN
Penn has won every award and he really did give a great performance. Skarsgard won the Drama Golden Globe and gave such a nuanced performance, I’d love to call for the upset but can’t do it.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
– Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
– Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
– Amy Madigan, Weapons
– Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners SHOULD WIN
– Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another WILL WIN
Everyone’s calling for Madigan here but that movie was not on par with any of the others here. She might still win, but I’ll predict that a bunch of movies get recognized tonight and this one will go to OBAA.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
– Sinners WILL WIN
– Marty Supreme
– Sentimental Value SHOULD WIN
– It Was Just An Accident
– Blue Moon
An easy way for the Academy to honor this film without giving it one of the big two prizes.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
– Bugonia
– Frankenstein
– Hamnet WILL WIN; SHOULD WIN
– One Battle After Another
– Train Dreams
I’m going out on a limb here that this wonderful film gets more than just the Actress award. Could be OBAA though.
CASTING:
– Hamnet
– Marty Supreme
– One Battle After Another
– The Secret Agent
– Sinners WILL WIN; SHOULD WIN
See my comment above.
CINEMATOGRAPHY:
– Frankenstein, Dan Laustsen
– Marty Supreme, Darius Khondji
– One Battle After Another, Michael Bauman
– Sinners, Autumn Durald Arkapaw WILL WIN
– Train Dreams, Adolpho Veloso SHOULD WIN
Ditto my last two comments. Train Dreams would be my choice, as the entire look of the movie, the outdoors, is almost a character unto itself.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
– Arco
– Elio
– KPop Demon Hunters WILL WIN
– Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
– Zootopia 2 SHOULD WIN
Yeah it’s cute, and although it’s not my #1 animated film of the year, this one seems like a lock as well. I think that voters get Disney fatigue, but there is little question in my mind that Zootopia 2 was the best animated film this year.
COSTUME DESIGN:
– Avatar: Fire and Ash, Deborah L. Scott
– Frankenstein, Kate Hawley SHOULD WIN
– Hamnet, Malgosia Turzanska
– Marty Supreme, Miyako Bellizzi
– Sinners, Ruth E. Carter WILL WIN
Another win for Sinners I think, although Frankenstein’s costume work was first rate.
EDITING:
– F1, Stephen Mirrione
– Marty Supreme, Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
– One Battle After Another, Andy Jurgensen SHOULD WIN
– Sentimental Value, Olivier Bugge Coutté
– Sinners, Michael P. Shawver WILL WIN
This is a tough one to predict, but the wild scenes of Sinners will edge out OBAA.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM:
– The Secret Agent (Brazil)
– It Was Just an Accident (France)
– Sentimental Value (Norway) WILL WIN; SHOULD WIN
– Sirāt (Spain)
– The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)
Five excellent films, and this is hardly a lock, but it had the most total nominations of any of these contenders and I think only The Secret Agent could pull the upset here.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
– Frankenstein, Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
– Kokuho, Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu SHOULD WIN
– Sinners, Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry WILL WIN
– The Smashing Machine, Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein
– The Ugly Stepsister, Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg
I doubt the academy gives this award to a little-seen film about Kabuki performers in Japan, but it should.
ORIGINAL SCORE:
– Bugonia, Jerskin Fendrix
– Frankenstein, Alexandre Desplat SHOULD WIN
– Hamnet, Max Richter
– One Battle After Another, Jonny Greenwood
– Sinners, Ludwig Goransson WILL WIN
The score is so central to all these movies that I am having a very hard time picking here. I’m just going with a gut feeling.
ORIGINAL SONG:
– “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless, Diane Warren
– “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters, EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy Park WILL WIN SHOULD WIN
– “I Lied To You” from Sinners, Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson
– “Sweet Dreams Of Joy” from Viva Verdi!, Nicholas Pike
– “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams, music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner
Diane Warren is going to win a regular Oscar one day. That day is not today. If you haven’t heard Golden, give it a listen, and then try to stop your toes from tapping for the rest of the day.
SOUND:
– F1, Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta
– Frankenstein, Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern
– One Battle After Another, José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor
– Sinners, Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker
– Sirāt, Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina Praderas WILL WIN SHOULD WIN
The sound is a character in this movie. Without it, I’m not sure what you’d be watching.
PRODUCTION DESIGN:
– Frankenstein
– Hamnet
– Marty Supreme SHOULD WIN
– One Battle After Another
– Sinners WILL WIN
Another tough one, as the design of Marty Supreme was really good, but I’ll stick with Sinners.
VISUAL EFFECTS:
– Avatar: Fire and Ash, Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
– F1, Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson
– Jurassic World Rebirth, David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould
– The Lost Bus, Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin
– Sinners, Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean WILL WIN SHOULD WIN
As vampires go, they looked pretty realistic, right?
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
– The Alabama Solution, Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman WILL WIN SHOULD WIN
– Come See Me In The Good Light, Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro and Stef Willen
– Cutting Through Rocks, Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni
– Mr. Nobody Against Putin, (nominees TBD)
– The Perfect Neighbor, Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee
It’s a toss up between three of these (Alabama, Putin, Good Light). So you can probably bet on one of the other two.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
– All the Empty Rooms, Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones WILL WIN SHOULD WIN
– Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud, Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo
– Children No More: Were and Are Gone, Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins
– The Devil Is Busy, Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir
– Perfectly a Strangeness, Alison McAlpine
The story of a photographer who takes pictures of the bedrooms of children killed in school shootings. ‘Nuff said.
LIVE ACTION SHORT:
– Butcher’s Stain, Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi
– A Friend of Dorothy, Lee Knight and James Dean
– Jane Austen’s Period Drama, Julia Aks and Steve Pinder SHOULD WIN
– The Singers, Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt
– Two People Exchanging Saliva, Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata WILL WIN
The “period drama” started out cringeworthy and ended up being very, very funny. But I think a strange little film about how kissing becomes outlawed gets the prize.
ANIMATED SHORT:
– Butterfly
– Forevergreen
– The Girl Who Cried Pearls
– Retirement Plan
– The Three Sisters WILL WIN; SHOULD WIN
These were all good and this is just a total shot in the dark.
And now for my favorite award: The “What would make Dean jump out of his seat” award. This is an easy one: Sentimental Value winning Best Picture. Since there is very, very little chance of that happening, I’ll be quite content with it taking home the trophy for Best International Film. An honorable mention to Stellen Skarsgard winning Best Actor, which would be delightful.
Enjoy the Oscars!
Confessions of a Huge Wine-R 