OK, here we are again, just hours before the Academy surprises and disappoints me 🙂
So, we have to talk about the elephant in the room (and, no, I’m not talking about nominee The Elephant Whiperers). There is one pretty significant movie that we didn’t get to see. You may have heard of it.
Avatar: The Way of Water
Yes, the 3rd-highest grossing film of all time, and we missed it. We had planned to see it this weekend and when I went to book the tickets, realized it was no longer playing in our area! Good grief. Well, I think it’s pretty likely to win just one award, and has zero chance to win Best Picture, so probably no real impact to my predictions. Still, it’s been a few years since we went into Oscar night without having seen all the Best Picture noms!
There were a few more we didn’t get to see because they just didn’t become available. It seemed tougher to find some of the shorts and foreign films this year. Movies we didn’t see are in red below. Oh, and for movies that were nominated for only “Best Song”, we didn’t necessarily watch the movie, just listened to the song. Close enough.
“All Quiet on the Western Front,” Malte Grunert, Producer
“Avatar: The Way of Water,” James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
“The Banshees of Inisherin,” Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh, Producers
“Elvis,” Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick and Schuyler Weiss, Producers
“Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers
“The Fabelmans,” Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, Producers
“Tár,” Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan and Scott Lambert, Producers
“Top Gun: Maverick,” Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers
“Triangle of Sadness,” Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober, Producers
“Women Talking,” Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand, Producers
Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once has been dominating awards season, and it would be a major upset if it doesn’t win this one too
Should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once should win almost Everything It Is Nominated For. It was the best film of the year and it’s not even close.
Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)
Todd Field (“Tár”)
Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)
Will win: The Daniels!
Should win: The Daniels
Best Lead Actor
Austin Butler (“Elvis”)
Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)
Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”)
Bill Nighy (“Living”)
Will win: Lots of late love for Austin Butler who seems like a nice young man and might be a good actor but his portrayal of Elvis wasn’t particularly special. Brendan Fraser, a Hollywood darling, wins here.
Should win: I will literally scream with joy if Bill Nighy gets recognized for his flat-out perfect performance in Living. Scream. Literally scream. You will hear me.
Best Lead Actress
Cate Blanchett (“Tár”)
Ana de Armas (“Blonde”)
Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)
Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)
Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Will win: Michelle Yeoh finally gets recognized.
Should win: Seriously, Riseborough was so good I would not be sad to hear her name called, but Yeoh was just as good and is so incredibly deserving. No disrespect to the other nominees, but if it’s anyone else I may quietly remove my TV from the wall and toss it over the balcony.
Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”)
Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)
Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Will win: Quan has won everything possible this season and this will be no exception.
Should win: Quan
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)
Hong Chau (“The Whale”)
Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Will win: All the late love has been for Kerry Condon. The two from Everything will probably cancel each other out. Bassett was winning early in the season but Condon has taken over, so I’ll sadly predict that the Marvel movies don’t get their first acting Oscar here. Condon.
Should win: We walked out of the theatre and the first thing my wife said was “Bassett should get an Oscar for that performance” and she was right.
Best Adapted Screenplay
“All Quiet on the Western Front,” Screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,” Written by Rian Johnson
“Living,” Written by Kazuo Ishiguro
“Top Gun: Maverick,” Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
“Women Talking,” Screenplay by Sarah Polley
Will win: It will either be Quiet or it will be Talking. I’m going to call for a mild upset here and go with Sarah Polley’s Women Talking; this could have been a total snooze-fest if not for an excellent cast and a brilliant script.
Should win: Living
Best Original Screenplay
“The Banshees of Inisherin,” Written by Martin McDonagh
“Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
“The Fabelmans,” Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner
“Tár,” Written by Todd Field
“Triangle of Sadness,” Written by Ruben Östlund
Will win: By the time it gets it’s 6th or 7th Oscar, people will be calling it Everything At the Podium All the Time.
Should win: Everything. The Daniels are going to have themselves a night.
“All Quiet on the Western Front”, James Friend
“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths,” Darius Khondji
“Elvis,” Mandy Walker
“Empire of Light,” Roger Deakins
“Tár,” Florian Hoffmeister
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should win: Quiet. It looked incredible.
Best Documentary Feature Film
“All That Breathes,” Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann and Teddy Leifer
“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed,” Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin and Yoni Golijov
“Fire of Love,” Sara Dosa, Shane Boris and Ina Fichman
“A House Made of Splinters,” Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström
“Navalny,” Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris
Will win: Navalny. It’s topical, it’s important, and it’s very well made.
Should win: Navalny
Best Documentary Short Film
“The Elephant Whisperers,” Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga
“Haulout,” Evgenia Arbugaeva and Maxim Arbugaev
“How Do You Measure a Year?” Jay Rosenblatt
“The Martha Mitchell Effect,” Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison
“Stranger at the Gate,” Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
Will win: The Elephant Whisperers
Should win: We enjoyed all four of these, but the Elephants and their Whisperers are a clear winner.
Best Film Editing
“The Banshees of Inisherin,” Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
“Elvis,” Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
“Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Paul Rogers
“Tár,” Monika Willi
“Top Gun: Maverick,” Eddie Hamilton
Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once gets all the flowers
Should win: EEAAO. Give them all the statues.
Best International Feature Film
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany)
“Argentina, 1985” (Argentina)
“The Quiet Girl” (Ireland)
Will win: You don’t get nominated for Best Picture and lose here. All Quiet on the Western Front.
Should win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Song
“Applause” from “Tell It Like a Woman,” Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick,” Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
“Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler
“Naatu Naatu” from “RRR,” Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose
“This Is a Life” from “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne
Will win: Is Diane Warren going to lose this category for the FOURTEENTH time?? She’s going to win eventually, right? Not with this sappy mess from a movie that nobody saw. Lots of predictions online that “Naatu Naatu” will win here, but I’m sorry, it’s just awful. I’ll say that star power wins out here and Rihanna gets the nod for “Lift me Up”.
Should win: “This is a Life” from the best movie of the year, by a mile, and it fits the movie perfectly.
Best Production Design
“All Quiet on the Western Front,” Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper
“Avatar: The Way of Water,” Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole
“Babylon,” Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
“Elvis,” Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn
“The Fabelmans,” Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara
Will win: I’m seeing a lot of predictions for Babylon, but I’m going with All Quiet on the Western Front.
Should win: All Quiet on the Western Front.
Best Visual Effects
“All Quiet on the Western Front,” Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar
“Avatar: The Way of Water,” Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
“The Batman,” Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick
“Top Gun: Maverick,” Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher
Will win: A movie franchise known for its Visual Effects, the 3rd highest grossing film of all time as of this writing….Avatar, right?
Should win: Haven’t seen it, but tough to imagine that Avatar isn’t worthy.
Best Animated Feature Film
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio,” Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley
“Marcel the Shell With Shoes On,” Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey
“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish,” Joel Crawford and Mark Swift
“The Sea Beast,” Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger
“Turning Red,” Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins
Will win: In my review I mentioned I was cheering for a wood-chipper, but I think the very-irritating Pinocchio is a winner here.
Should win: Marcel the little Shell was a revelation.
Best Animated Short Film
“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse,” Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud
“The Flying Sailor,” Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby
“Ice Merchants,” João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano
“My Year of Dicks,” Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon
“An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It,” Lachlan Pendragon
Will win: My Year of Dicks
Should win: Dicks all day. It was pretty adorable. Shout out to The Boy the Mole, etc, as well, which would be a worthy winner.
Best Costume Design
“Babylon,” Mary Zophres
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Ruth Carter
“Elvis,” Catherine Martin
“Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Shirley Kurata
“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris,” Jenny Beavan
Will win: This might be the only place the Academy honors Wakanda. Black Panther.
Should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once should just win everything it’s up for, including this.
Best Live Action Short
“An Irish Goodbye,” Tom Berkeley and Ross White
“Ivalu,” Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan
“Le Pupille,” Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón
“Night Ride,” Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen
“The Red Suitcase,” Cyrus Neshvad
Will win: I’ve heard a lot of great things about The Red Suitcase, so I’ll go with that.
Should win: Ivalu, of the three I saw.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“All Quiet on the Western Front,” Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová
“The Batman,” Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Camille Friend and Joel Harlow
“Elvis,” Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti
“The Whale,” Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley
Will win: The Whale. The most incredible fat suit I’ve ever seen.
Should win: The Whale
Best Original Score
“All Quiet on the Western Front,” Volker Bertelmann
“Babylon,” Justin Hurwitz
“The Banshees of Inisherin,” Carter Burwell
“Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Son Lux
“The Fabelmans,” John Williams
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should win: I know, I know, he’s 100 years old and a living legend, but I’m choosing John Williams. Again.
“All Quiet on the Western Front,” Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte
“Avatar: The Way of Water,” Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael Hedges
“The Batman,” Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson
“Elvis,” David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller
“Top Gun: Maverick,” Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
Will win: The movie with “Quiet” in the title, of course.
Should win: Quiet.
So let’s see how we do! Now, two more things:
Lock of the night: Best International Feature “All Quiet on the Western Front”. It’s a rarity when you get the double nomination, and no film has ever been nominated for both and lost this one.
Award that would make me cheer the loudest: Tough one, I’m going to cheat and say it’s a tie between:
Best Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett
Best Actor: Bill Nighy
Enjoy the show!!!