It’s Xmas morning for Cinemaphiles like me, the 96th Academy Awards go live tonight at 4PM Pacific Time.
As always, we did our best to see all of the nominated films (or in the case of Best Original Song, we listened to the songs if we didn’t see the movie). Actually, that’s not true: for the first time ever, there was one film we didn’t even seek out:
Godzilla Minus One – Best Visual Effects
I love movies, but I don’t love them THAT much.
Anyway, we were less successful than we would have liked; two of the five nominated Animated Features, including the very possible winner, weren’t available anywhere for us to watch them. One of the International Features has been “Available for pre-order” for weeks but I don’t want to pre-order it, dammit, I want to watch it BEFORE tonight’s show; to be honest, there is zero chance it wins anyway, and I don’t have to see it to know that. One of the films nominated in the International Feature category is also nominated for Best Picture, so that’s a mortal lock to win the International award.
We were able to find all of the live action shorts, but missed out on finding two of the animated shorts. It seemed like this year they were tougher to find, without driving into Vancouver for a film festival.
Anyway, here they are: All of the nominees, with my predictions on who is going to win, and my choices for who SHOULD win.
If a movie is highlighted in red, we didn’t see it.
Best Picture
AMERICAN FICTION
Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson and Jermaine Johnson, Producers
ANATOMY OF A FALL
Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion, Producers
BARBIE
David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley and Robbie Brenner, Producers
THE HOLDOVERS
Mark Johnson, Producer
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese and Daniel Lupi, Producers
MAESTRO
Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers
OPPENHEIMER
Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan, Producers
PAST LIVES
David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon and Pamela Koffler, Producers
POOR THINGS
Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone, Producers
THE ZONE OF INTEREST
James Wilson, Producer
WILL win: Oppenheimer. It’s worthy, it’s a great film, #2 on my list, and it’s been winning everything. It would be a MAJOR shock if this isn’t the final name called this evening.
SHOULD win: Past Lives. It’s a perfect movie. It’s real. It’s wonderful. If it had been released in December, rather than June, I believe it would have a real shot here.
Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper in MAESTRO
Colman Domingo in RUSTIN
Paul Giamatti in THE HOLDOVERS
Cillian Murphy in OPPENHEIMER
Jeffrey Wright in AMERICAN FICTION
WILL win: This will probably determine just how dominant Oppenheimer will be tonight. It’s a two horse race between Murphy and Giamatti, and I just feel like the Oppenheimer train won’t be derailed at all tonight. Murphy.
SHOULD win: Paul Giamatti
Actor in a Supporting Role
Sterling K. Brown in AMERICAN FICTION
Robert De Niro in KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Robert Downey Jr. in OPPENHEIMER
Ryan Gosling in BARBIE
Mark Ruffalo in POOR THINGS
WILL win: Great performances all around, but this is Downey Jr’s night.
SHOULD win: Downey Jr. was brilliant.
Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening in NYAD
Lily Gladstone in KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Sandra Hüller in ANATOMY OF A FALL
Carey Mulligan in MAESTRO
Emma Stone in POOR THINGS
WILL win: Lily Gladstone has won just about everything she’s been eligible for, no reason to think that ends here.
SHOULD win: The inexplicable exclusion of Greta Lee (Past Lives) notwithstanding, Gladstone gave my 2nd favorite performance of the year, and is very deserving to be the first Indigenous Oscar winner in history.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Emily Blunt in OPPENHEIMER
Danielle Brooks in THE COLOR PURPLE
America Ferrera in BARBIE
Jodie Foster in NYAD
Da’Vine Joy Randolph in THE HOLDOVERS
WILL win: Randolph. See my comments about Gladstone.
SHOULD win: OK, we walked out of The Holdovers talking about what a powerful performance that Randolph gave, and she will be a very worth winner. However, if you’ve seen Barbie, or just seen that one monologue that Ferrera gave about the perils of just trying to be a woman existing in this world, it’s a pretty perfect performance. I’d pick Ferrera in a photo finish.
Side note; This might be the only award that Oppenheimer is nominated for that it has little chance of winning, IMO. Blunt was good, but not up to the others. If she wins, you can count on an Oppenheimer sweep.
Animated Feature Film
THE BOY AND THE HERON
Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki
ELEMENTAL
Peter Sohn and Denise Ream
NIMONA
Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan and Julie Zackary
ROBOT DREAMS
Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé and Sandra Tapia Díaz
SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE
Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal
WILL win: Tough category given that I didn’t see 40% of the nominees (Robot Dreams isn’t even premiering here until this Summer!), but I’m going to say the Academy rewards the fine lifelong work of Hayao Miyazaki here, and by all accounts The Boy and the Heron is terrific filmmaking.
SHOULD win: Your friendly neighborhood Spider-Man.
Cinematography
EL CONDE
Edward Lachman
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Rodrigo Prieto
MAESTRO
Matthew Libatique
OPPENHEIMER
Hoyte van Hoytema
POOR THINGS
Robbie Ryan
WILL win: Oppenheimer
SHOULD win: Killers of the Flower Moon
Costume Design
BARBIE
Jacqueline Durran
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Jacqueline West
NAPOLEON
Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
OPPENHEIMER
Ellen Mirojnick
POOR THINGS
Holly Waddington
WILL win: Barbie has to win SOMETHING, right? This might be it’s only chance other than Best Song.
SHOULD win: Killers of the Flower Moon
Directing
ANATOMY OF A FALL
Justine Triet
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Martin Scorsese
OPPENHEIMER
Christopher Nolan
POOR THINGS
Yorgos Lanthimos
THE ZONE OF INTEREST
Jonathan Glazer
WILL win: Nolan for Oppenheimer. Put it in the bank.
SHOULD win: Well, Celine Song should certainly be at least nominated for Past Lives, but it’s tough to overlook Nolan here. It really was a fabulous film.
Documentary Feature Film
BOBI WINE: THE PEOPLE’S PRESIDENT
Moses Bwayo, Christopher Sharp and John Battsek
THE ETERNAL MEMORY
Maite Alberdi
FOUR DAUGHTERS
Kaouther Ben Hania and Nadim Cheikhrouha
TO KILL A TIGER
Nisha Pahuja, Cornelia Principe and David Oppenheim
20 DAYS IN MARIUPOL
Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath
WILL win: Three really great films here, but given the circumstances in the world, I think the Academy recognizes the incredible risks the filmmakers took in documenting the atrocities going on in Ukraine. 20 Days in Mariupol (note: Four Daughters won this prize at the Spirit Awards recently, so it’s a possibility).
SHOULD win: Mariupol is very worthy, but To Kill a Tiger, the story of how a village in India tried to cover up the gang rape of a 12-year old girl, made me so damn angry. And that was the point.
Documentary Short Film
THE ABCS OF BOOK BANNING
Sheila Nevins and Trish Adlesic
THE BARBER OF LITTLE ROCK
John Hoffman and Christine Turner
ISLAND IN BETWEEN
S. Leo Chiang and Jean Tsien
THE LAST REPAIR SHOP
Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
NǎI NAI & WàI Pó
Sean Wang and Sam Davis
WILL win: All good films. The Barber of Little Rock is my choice to win.
SHOULD win: The Last Repair Shop
Film Editing
ANATOMY OF A FALL
Laurent Sénéchal
THE HOLDOVERS
Kevin Tent
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Thelma Schoonmaker
OPPENHEIMER
Jennifer Lame
POOR THINGS
Yorgos Mavropsaridis
WILL win: Oppenheimer
SHOULD win: Oppenheimer
International Feature Film
IO CAPITANO
Italy
PERFECT DAYS
Japan
SOCIETY OF THE SNOW
Spain
THE TEACHERS’ LOUNGE
Germany
THE ZONE OF INTEREST
United Kingdom
WILL win: You don’t get nominated for Best Picture and then lose this one. The overrated The Zone of Interest is a lock here.
SHOULD win: Perfect Days.
Makeup and Hairstyling
GOLDA
Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue
MAESTRO
Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell
OPPENHEIMER
Luisa Abel
POOR THINGS
Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston
SOCIETY OF THE SNOW
Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé
WILL win: Oppenheimer (upset alert: Society of the Snow)
SHOULD win: Poor Things
Music (Original Score)
AMERICAN FICTION
Laura Karpman
INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY
John Williams
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Robbie Robertson
OPPENHEIMER
Ludwig Göransson
POOR THINGS
Jerskin Fendrix
WILL win: Does the Academy want to posthumously reward the great contributions of Robbie Robertson? It wouldn’t shock me; but I’ll stick with the powerhouse and say this one also goes to Oppenheimer.
SHOULD win: Robertson.
Music (Original Song)
“The Fire Inside” from FLAMIN’ HOT
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“I’m Just Ken” from BARBIE
Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
“It Never Went Away” from AMERICAN SYMPHONY
Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson
“Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” from KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Music and Lyric by Scott George
“What Was I Made For?” from BARBIE
Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
WILL win: Unless the Barbie voters somehow split the vote, Eilish and O’Connell are going to prevail here.
SHOULD win: Jon Batiste’s song is freaking terrific, but What Was I Made For is a beautiful song and fits the movie perfectly.
Production Design
BARBIE
Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
NAPOLEON
Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff
OPPENHEIMER
Production Design: Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman
POOR THINGS
Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek
WILL win: Oppenheimer
SHOULD win: Oppenheimer
Short Film (Animated)
LETTER TO A PIG
Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter
NINETY-FIVE SENSES
Jerusha Hess and Jared Hess
OUR UNIFORM
Yegane Moghaddam
PACHYDERME
Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius
WAR IS OVER! INSPIRED BY THE MUSIC OF JOHN & YOKO
Dave Mullins and Brad Booker
WILL win: War is Over! I’ve only seen a short trailer, but it looks great and it has some name recogniation.
SHOULD win: Of the three we saw, Pachyderme.
Short Film (Live Action)
THE AFTER
Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham
INVINCIBLE
Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron
KNIGHT OF FORTUNE
Lasse Lyskjær Noer and Christian Norlyk
RED, WHITE AND BLUE
Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane
THE WONDERFUL STORY OF HENRY SUGAR
Wes Anderson and Steven Rales
WILL win: Red, White and Blue is one of the great shorts I’ve ever seen.
SHOULD win: RED, WHITE and BLUE . This is a great category this year, and all of these except the ridiculous Wes Anderson short would be worthy winners.
Sound
THE CREATOR
Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
MAESTRO
Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – DEAD RECKONING PART ONE
Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
OPPENHEIMER
Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell
THE ZONE OF INTEREST
Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn
WILL win: Oppenheimer
SHOULD win: The sound from The Zone of Interest was the best part of the movie, and it was the most pivotal to the film. It was a character in itself.
Visual Effects
THE CREATOR
Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould
GODZILLA MINUS ONE
Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3
Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – DEAD RECKONING PART ONE
Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould
NAPOLEON
Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould
WILL win: Mission Impossible. These were next level visuals.
SHOULD win: Mission Impossible
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
AMERICAN FICTION
Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson
BARBIE
Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach
OPPENHEIMER
Written for the screen by Christopher Nolan
POOR THINGS
Screenplay by Tony McNamara
THE ZONE OF INTEREST
Written by Jonathan Glazer
WILL win: Oppenheimer
SHOULD win: Oppenheimer
Writing (Original Screenplay)
ANATOMY OF A FALL
Screenplay – Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
THE HOLDOVERS
Written by David Hemingson
MAESTRO
Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer
MAY DECEMBER
Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik
PAST LIVES
Written by Celine Song
WILL win: This is where Anatomy of a Fall, a great film, gets it’s recognition.
SHOULD win: Past Lives. Duh.
So there they are, my thoughts on tonight’s Oscars. But let’s talk about one more thing: What do I really WANT to happen? What will make me cheer out loud and jump out of my chair?
Well, if Past Lives wins Best Picture, I will not only cheer out loud, I’ll scream from the rooftops and probably burst into tears. But let’s get real, that’s just not going to happen. So let’s keep it realistic. What will I cheer for that might actually happen? There are two.
Best Original Screenplay – Celine Song (Past Lives)
Actress in a Supporting Role – America Ferrera (Barbie)
Here’s hoping.
Enjoy the show!
Confessions of a Huge Wine-R 