The 92nd Academy Awards, and a crime in the very near future.

Dispatcher: “9-1-1, What’s your emergency?”

Me: “I’d like to report a theft”.

Dispatcher: “A theft in progress? What is the location”.

Me: “Not in progress yet. It’s going to happen in a few hours. And it’s at the Dolby Theatre, in Los Angeles”.

Dispatcher: “Sorry? You want to report a theft that is going to happen, hours from now, at a theatre in Los Angeles???”

Me: “Yes. Renée Zellweger is going to steal an Oscar”.

…………..silence

Dispatcher: “This isn’t funny.”

Me: “I’m not joking. It’s going to be one of the greatest heists in movie history.”

Dispatcher: Hangs up.

 

OK so here they are, my picks for who is going to win, and who SHOULD win, at tonight’s 92nd Annual Oscar ceremony. In each of the major categories, I will also mention how many of the nominations I have seen, which is most but not all.

BEST PICTURE

 Ford v Ferrari
 The Irishman
 Jojo Rabbit
 Joker
 Little Women
 Marriage Story
 1917
 Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
 Parasite

 

I have seen all of these, and liked eight of the nine. Only Tarentino’s bloated, boring OUATIH winning would really upset me. Since the best two movies of the year, The Farewell and Rocketman were both omitted, I’ll have to give this award to my third choice.

Should win: Marriage Story

Will win: Parasite

Yes, I’m going to call for the upset here, as Parasite’s late momentum makes it the first foreign language film to win Best Picture, edging out 1917.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

  Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
  Leonardo DiCaprio, Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
  Adam Driver, Marriage Story
  Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
  Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

 

I have seen all of these performances, and each was brilliant in it’s own way. I think this one is obvious, as Joaquin Phoenix has won everything he possibly could up to this point. If there is one award that would make me jump out of my seat for joy tonight, it would be this one, if there is a major upset.

Should win: Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Will win: Phoenix

If I am not mistaken, this win will be the first time in Oscars history that two actors have won Oscars for playing the same role (Heath Ledger, 2009)

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

  •   Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
  •   Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
  •   Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
  •   Charlize Theron, Bombshell
  •   Renée Zellweger, Judy

I have seen 4 of these (not Bombshell), and there is going to be a serious crime committed here, as the Academy is going to overlook the best performance of the year, male or female, and hand an Oscar to a well-liked industry veteran who chewed up the scenery playing an industry Icon. MY GOD, I hope I am wrong. (Editor’s note: I would actually take Scarlett Johansson or Cynthia Erivo over Zellweger too).

Should win: Soirose Ronan, Little Women

Will win: Zellweger

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  •   Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
  •   Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
  •   Al Pacino, The Irishman
  •   Joe Pesci, The Irishman
  •   Brad Pitt, Once upon a Time…in Hollywood

I have seen all of these, and all are deserving nominees except Hanks, who I never really bought as Fred Rogers. Having said that, it’s still Tom Hanks who never really gives a bad performance.

Should win and will win: Brad Pitt

I hated the movie, but it wasn’t Pitt’s fault, and he really sold his character. A well deserved tribute to a fine actor. If there is an upset here, it will be Hopkins, who offered up his finest performance in years, but I think this is Pitt’s all the way.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  •   Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
  •   Laura Dern, Marriage Story
  •   Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
  •   Florence Pugh, Little Women
  •   Margot Robbie, Bombshell

I have not seen Bombshell or Richard Jewell. This one also seems like a lock, as Dern has won everything she could, but I’m going to go in a different direction, and choose an actress I was totally unfamiliar with (I didn’t even know which character she was playing when I saw the movie yesterday) but am really looking forward to watching her career progress.

Should win: Florence Pugh, Little Women

Will win: Dern

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

 Corpus Christi
 Honeyland
 Les Misérables
 Pain and Glory
 Parasite

I am only including this category to “up my win rate”, as this is the absolute lock of the night. Pain and Glory (the only other one I saw) was very good, but you don’t get nominated for Best Picture and lose this one.

Will win and should win: Parasite

DIRECTING

  •   The Irishman
  •   Joker
  •   1917
  •   Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
  •   Parasite

This might be the place that the Academy honors Tarentino, but I am going to go with my gut and say that 1917 is just too good not to be honored somewhere.

Will win and should win: Sam Mendes, 1917

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

 The Irishman
 Jojo Rabbit
 Joker
 Little Women
 The Two Popes

It’s a crime that Greta Gerwig wasn’t nominated in the Best Director category, but I feel like the Academy has a chance to make it up to her here. The Two Popes would be my second choice.

Will win and should win: Greta Gerwig, Little Women

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

 Knives Out
 Marriage Story
 1917
 Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
 Parasite

I don’t believe that Brad Pitt is going to be the only winner from that Hollywood film, the Academy loves to honor films about itself, so I’m going to predict in that direction.

Should win: Parasite
Will win: Once upon a Time…in Hollywood

CINEMATOGRAPHY

  •   The Irishman
  •   Joker
  •   The Lighthouse
  •   1917
  •   Once upon a Time…in Hollywood

I have not seen the Lighthouse (nor heard of it, actually), and I think this is a total no-brainer.

Will win and should win: 1917

 VISUAL EFFECTS

 Avengers: Endgame
 The Irishman
 The Lion King
 1917
 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Yes, yes, the Academy generally hates superhero pictures, but COME ON, this one should be easy.

Will win and should win: Avengers: Endgame

ORIGINAL SONG

 “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4
 “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman
 “I’m Standing With You,” Breakthrough
 “Into The Unknown,” Frozen II
 “Stand Up,” Harriet

 

I haven’t seen all the movies but did listen to all the songs. There is nothing iconic here, but they are all decent little ditties if nothing else.

Should win: Stand Up

Will win: (I’m Gonna) Love Me Again

I mean, they can’t send Rocketman home without a single award, it was just too good for that.

FILM EDITING

 Ford v Ferrari
 The Irishman
 Jojo Rabbit
 Joker
 Parasite

This is as far as I am going to go into the more technical categories, but I think all those scenes at Le Mans, which were impressive, require some seriously good editing.

Will win and should win: Ford v Ferrari

 

Ok that’s it, let’s see how I do. Enjoy the show!

 

 

Published by

deanengemoen

Wine blogger, foodie, traveler.

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