So, yeah, I saw them all. OK not quite ALL….but almost. I heard all five “Original Song” nominees, and saw all the nominated movies except for:
No Time To Die (Best Visual Effects)
Cyrano (Best Costume Design)
Boxballet (Best Animated Short Film)
Yes, that’s all. And other than perhaps Boxballet (the Animated Shorts were pretty weak this year), these films have a 0.00000 percent chance to win in their respective categories, so no big loss.
Here we go!
Best Picture
BELFAST
Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas, Producers
CODA
Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger, Producers
DON’T LOOK UP
Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, Producers
DRIVE MY CAR
Teruhisa Yamamoto, Producer
DUNE
Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter, Producers
KING RICHARD
Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith, Producers
LICORICE PIZZA
Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers
NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper, Producers
THE POWER OF THE DOG
Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier, Producers
WEST SIDE STORY
Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers
WILL WIN: All the pundits have this as a battle between The Power of the Dog and CODA. All the pundits are wrong. For the third year in a row, I’m calling for a massive upset. The best film of the year was Drive My Car, and it’s going to win. I was wrong with Minari last year, but I was the only person on the planet as far as I know that called Parasite to win in 2020.
SHOULD WIN: Drive My Car
Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem in BEING THE RICARDOS
Benedict Cumberbatch in THE POWER OF THE DOG
Andrew Garfield in TICK, TICK…BOOM!
Will Smith in KING RICHARD
Denzel Washington in THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
WILL WIN: The pundits aren’t wrong this time, it would be a major upset if anyone other than Will Smith takes home gold.
SHOULD WIN: Smith.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Ciarán Hinds in BELFAST
Troy Kotsur in CODA
Jesse Plemons in THE POWER OF THE DOG
J.K. Simmons in BEING THE RICARDOS
Kodi Smit-McPhee in THE POWER OF THE DOG
WILL WIN: Kotsur has won everything up until now, and he’s a near-lock for this one as well.
SHOULD WIN: Kotsur gave a great performance and is deserving, but if I had the only vote, it’s for J.K. Simmons who absolutely owned every scene he was in.
Actress in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain in THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE
Olivia Colman in THE LOST DAUGHTER
Penélope Cruz in PARALLEL MOTHERS
Nicole Kidman in BEING THE RICARDOS
Kristen Stewart in SPENCER
WILL WIN: Chastain has had all the late momentum and was transformative as Tammy Faye Bakker. She even had me feeling sympathetic for her.
SHOULD WIN: Cruz.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Jessie Buckley in THE LOST DAUGHTER
Ariana DeBose in WEST SIDE STORY
Judi Dench in BELFAST
Kirsten Dunst in THE POWER OF THE DOG
Aunjanue Ellis in KING RICHARD
WILL WIN: DeBose is a shoo-in for an Oscar for the same role which Rita Moreno won for 50 years ago.
SHOULD WIN: I love Ariana DeBose and this was a career making performance for her, but she’s really not onscreen that much and the movie was a dog, so I’m picking Jesse Buckley who was superb in another film that I didn’t love. Dunst is the dark-horse here.
Animated Feature Film
ENCANTO
Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer
FLEE
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
LUCA
Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren
THE MITCHELLS VS. THE MACHINES
Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht
RAYA AND THE LAST DRAGON
Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer and Peter Del Vecho
WILL WIN: Will the three Disney movies cancel themselves out? Perhaps, but I can’t see ENCANTO being overlooked since it has seemingly become a cultural phenomenon.
SHOULD WIN: FLEE. I don’t think it has a chance in this category simply because we generally expect animated movies to be FUN, and it’s certainly not that. It was, however, the best of these 5 worthy contenders.
Cinematography
DUNE
Greig Fraser
NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Dan Laustsen
THE POWER OF THE DOG
Ari Wegner
THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
Bruno Delbonnel
WEST SIDE STORY
Janusz Kaminski
WILL WIN: The Academy loves the sweeping Westerns, and THE POWER OF THE DOG fits that bill.
SHOULD WIN: WOOF.
Costume Design
CRUELLA
Jenny Beavan
CYRANO
Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran
DUNE
Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan
NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Luis Sequeira
WEST SIDE STORY
Paul Tazewell
WILL WIN: CRUELLA was well done and costumes were the main theme of the movie, so that makes sense.
SHOULD WIN: CRUELLA
Directing
BELFAST
Kenneth Branagh
DRIVE MY CAR
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
LICORICE PIZZA
Paul Thomas Anderson
THE POWER OF THE DOG
Jane Campion
WEST SIDE STORY
Steven Spielberg
WILL WIN: Campion is the odds-on favorite and I think she becomes just the second female director to take home Oscar.
SHOULD WIN: Hamaguchi managed to make a 3-hour long, Japanese-speaking film that takes place mostly in a car and features a bunch of actors rehearsing for a stage play and make it the most riveting, entertaining film of the year. It was so well-done that I really wanted TO SEE THE PLAY!!! If that’s not Directing, I don’t know what is.
Documentary (Feature)
ASCENSION
Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell
ATTICA
Stanley Nelson and Traci A. Curry
FLEE
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
SUMMER OF SOUL (…OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED)
Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein
WRITING WITH FIRE
Rintu Thomas and Sushmit Ghosh
WILL WIN: The beloved SUMMER OF SOUL is brilliant and important and the Academy can’t possibly overlook that. What a truly fantastic year of Documentaries. These are five terrific films.
SHOULD WIN: I loved Flee, which came in at #5 on my list of the 10 best movies of 2021, which is remarkable for a Documentary. However, SUMMER OF SOUL came in at #4.
Documentary (Short Subject)
AUDIBLE
Matt Ogens and Geoff McLean
LEAD ME HOME
Pedro Kos and Jon Shenk
THE QUEEN OF BASKETBALL
Ben Proudfoot
THREE SONGS FOR BENAZIR
Elizabeth Mirzaei and Gulistan Mirzaei
WHEN WE WERE BULLIES
Jay Rosenblatt
WILL WIN: THE QUEEN OF BASKETBALL, a fascinating story of the only female ever to be drafted in the NBA. She will be front of mind as well, as she passed away in January of 2022.
SHOULD WIN: The Queen is worthy, but my favorite of these five was WHEN WE WERE BULLIES, a story about guilt, regret, and some truly incredible coincidences that bring a writer to revisit his elementary school days.
Film Editing
DON’T LOOK UP
Hank Corwin
DUNE
Joe Walker
KING RICHARD
Pamela Martin
THE POWER OF THE DOG
Peter Sciberras
TICK, TICK…BOOM!
Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum
WILL WIN: DUNE
SHOULD WIN: DUNE
International Feature Film
DRIVE MY CAR
Japan
FLEE
Denmark
THE HAND OF GOD
Italy
LUNANA: A YAK IN THE CLASSROOM
Bhutan
THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD
Norway
WILL WIN: What a category….but you don’t get nominated for Best Picture and lose here. DRIVE MY CAR
SHOULD WIN: Pretty obvious since it was my best film of the year. But Flee deserves props as well as the only film in history nominated here as well as Best Documentary and Best Animated Film. That is quite a triumph. And The Worst Person in the World also made my Top-10. As I said, what a category!!
Makeup and Hairstyling
COMING 2 AMERICA
Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer
CRUELLA
Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon
DUNE
Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr
THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE
Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh
HOUSE OF GUCCI
Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras
WILL WIN: I changed my pick at the last minute to go with THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE. Originally I said Dune.
SHOULD WIN: DUNE. And I have to mention that I actually sat through about a half hour of Coming 2 America just so I could bring you this well-informed take. That is a half hour of my life that I can never, ever, ever, get back. You’re welcome.
Music (Original Score)
DON’T LOOK UP
Nicholas Britell
DUNE
Hans Zimmer
ENCANTO
Germaine Franco
PARALLEL MOTHERS
Alberto Iglesias
THE POWER OF THE DOG
Jonny Greenwood
WILL WIN: DUNE is an Oscar-score-dream.
SHOULD WIN: PARALLEL MOTHERS
Music (Original Song)
“Be Alive” from KING RICHARD
Music and Lyric by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter
“Dos Oruguitas” from ENCANTO
Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
“Down To Joy” from BELFAST
Music and Lyric by Van Morrison
“No Time To Die” from NO TIME TO DIE
Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
“Somehow You Do” from FOUR GOOD DAYS
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
WILL WIN: SOMEHOW YOU DO, from FOUR GOOD DAYS. Diane Warren is OH-FOR-THIRTEEN in this category. She’s the Susan Lucci of Oscar music. That ends here. Not to mention, it’s a good song performed by Reba McEntire.
SHOULD WIN: Oh, poor Lin-Manuel, who would have finished his EGOT if they had submitted “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” for nomination instead of “Dos Oruguitas”. I am sticking with Warren, as the other contenders (especially the sleepy Bond song) aren’t particularly strong.
Production Design
DUNE
Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos
NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
THE POWER OF THE DOG
Production Design: Grant Major; Set Decoration: Amber Richards
THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
Production Design: Stefan Dechant; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
WEST SIDE STORY
Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo
WILL WIN: DUNE
SHOULD WIN: NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Short Film (Animated)
AFFAIRS OF THE ART
Joanna Quinn and Les Mills
BESTIA
Hugo Covarrubias and Tevo Díaz
BOXBALLET
Anton Dyakov
ROBIN ROBIN
Dan Ojari and Mikey Please
THE WINDSHIELD WIPER
Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez
WILL WIN: In a weak category, AFFAIRS OF THE ART
SHOULD WIN: ART, I guess. None of the four I saw really spoke to me. Couldn’t find Boxballet anywhere online, but the short trailer didn’t impress.
Short Film (Live Action)
ALA KACHUU – TAKE AND RUN
Maria Brendle and Nadine Lüchinger
THE DRESS
Tadeusz Łysiak and Maciej Ślesicki
THE LONG GOODBYE
Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed
ON MY MIND
Martin Strange-Hansen and Kim Magnusson
PLEASE HOLD
K.D. Dávila and Levin Menekse
WILL WIN: THE LONG GOODBYE is a powerful look at racism and is produced by and starring Riz Ahmed, who was nominated for Best Actor last year for The Sound of Silence. That kind of star power doesn’t generally show up in Short Films.
SHOULD WIN: Goodbye is really good, but my favorite is the shocking ALA KACHUU, a story about women being kidnapped into marriage in Kyrgyzstan and the total and utter lack of accountability for the kidnappers. This happens right out in the open, and is apparently a huge problem there. Eye-opening and brilliant.
Sound
BELFAST
Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri
DUNE
Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett
NO TIME TO DIE
Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor
THE POWER OF THE DOG
Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb
WEST SIDE STORY
Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy
WILL WIN: DUNE
SHOULD WIN: DUNE
Visual Effects
DUNE
Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
FREE GUY
Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick
NO TIME TO DIE
Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould
SHANG-CHI AND THE LEGEND OF THE TEN RINGS
Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver
SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME
Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick
WILL WIN: I’m going against conventional wisdom here, and maybe it’s just my Superhero bias at work, but the effects in SPIDER-MAN were some of the best I’ve ever seen. This blockbuster has to get SOMETHING, right? Well, past ceremonies have said “no”, but I think it wins here.
SHOULD WIN: Your favorite neighborhood wall-crawler.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
CODA
Screenplay by Siân Heder
DRIVE MY CAR
Screenplay by Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe
DUNE
Screenplay by Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth
THE LOST DAUGHTER
Written by Maggie Gyllenhaal
THE POWER OF THE DOG
Written by Jane Campion
WILL WIN: How does the best film of the year not win for Writing? DRIVE MY CAR
SHOULD WIN: DRIVE MY CAR
Writing (Original Screenplay)
BELFAST
Written by Kenneth Branagh
DON’T LOOK UP
Screenplay by Adam McKay; Story by Adam McKay & David Sirota
KING RICHARD
Written by Zach Baylin
LICORICE PIZZA
Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD
Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
WILL WIN: My #2 film of the year, and it breaks my heart to say this is the only award it has a chance to get. BELFAST.
SHOULD WIN: BELFAST.
Well, that’s it, let’s see how well I read the Academy. I think they did a pretty good job with nominations this year, with one notable exception: How the HELL did they nominate Kristen Stewart’s boring, often-unintelligible performance in Spencer, a really bad movie, over Lady Gaga’s perfect portrayal of Patrizia Gucci in House of Gucci? Gaga probably should have WON the award this year, and yet she wasn’t even nominated. I know the movie had it’s detractors, and it was far from a perfect film, but that was the female performance of the year, IMO.
Happy Oscars Day!